Friday, April 26, 2013

HEAT Produced: All the 3 Kings Men Win Game 3 in Milwaukee


Ray Allen and the reserves helped the Miami HEAT beat the Bucks by double-digits in Milwaukee without a complete game from LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.

Conventional wisdom says role players' games don't travel in the playoffs, but that wasn't true for the HEAT in Game 3. In fact, the numbers indicate it was just the opposite.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Most Productive HEAT Players
The HEAT starters only increased the team's chances of winning by 27% with 0.269 est. wins produced in Game 3 while the reserves increased the HEAT's chances of winning by 44% with 0.438 est. wins produced. The game was decided by the reserves.

Ray Allen set the all-time record for 3-pointers made in the playoffs and was the most productive player in the game with 23 points on 75% shooting efficiency, 2 assists and 0 turnovers that increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 28.9% with 0.459 est.WP48 in 30 minutes.

Cradle Robber (Chris Andersen) was the 2nd-most productive HEAT player with 11 points on 5-5 shooting in 14 minutes with 6 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 turnover and 3 fouls that increased the HEAT's chance of winning the game by 18.3% with 0.631 est.WP48.

LeBron James (0.149 est.WP48) and Udonis Haslem (0.291 est.WP48) were the most productive starters. They increased the HEAT's chance of winning Game 3 by 10.2% and 9.7%, respectively.

Least Productive HEAT Players
The only poor performance off the bench for the HEAT in Game 3 came from Shaved Monkey Nuts (Shane Battier), but what else is new? Shaved Monkey Nuts decreased the HEAT's chance of winning Game 3 by 19.1% with 1-4 shooting, 1 turnover and 3 fouls for -0.334 est.WP48.

Mario Chalmers was the least productive HEAT starter in Game 3 with just 7 points on 33% shooting efficiency, 8 assists, 1 turnover, 1 steal and 3 fouls. His production decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 2.9% in 28.2 minutes for -0.050 est.WP48.

Most Productive Bucks Players
The Bucks starters outplayed the HEAT and increased Milwaukee's chances of winning by 56% with 0.558 est. wins produced, but the reserves decreased the Bucks' chances of winning by 27% with -0.266 est. wins produced.

Ersan Ilyasova was the most productive Bucks player. He increased his team's chance of winning by 23% with 15 points on 63% shooting efficiency, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 turnovers, 3 steals and 1 block in 32.8 minutes for 0.336 est.WP48.

Larry Sanders was the 2nd-most productive Bucks player. He increased the team's chance of winning by 19% with 0.186 est. wins produced from 16 points, 70% shooting efficiency, 11 rebounds, 1 block, 2 steals and 5 fouls in 34.9 minutes for 0.256 est.WP48.

J.J. Redick was the most productive Bucks player off the bench by increasing the team's chance to win by 0.1%. Yes, the bench was that bad.

Least Productive Bucks Players
Samuel Dalembert anchored the shitty Bucks bench by decreasing the team's chance to win Game 3 by 13.8% by shooting 0-2 from the floor and 1-4 from the line with 2 turnovers and 3 fouls in just 9 minutes for -0.736 est.WP48.

Monta Ellis was the least productive Bucks starter. He decreased the team's chance of winning Game 3 by 5.7% with 0.057 est. wins produced from 7 points on 27% shooting efficiency with 2 turnovers and 2 fouls in 39.6 minutes for -0.070 est.WP48. He was still outplayed by Dwyane Wade, who managed to increase the HEAT's chance of winning by 5.5% despite shooting 1-12 from the floor.

The spreadsheet below lists all the wins produced stats estimated from the Game 3 box score.



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