Monday, June 17, 2013

2013 NBA Finals: Older Gods Strike Back in Game 5. Will 3 Kings Defend the Throne in Game 6?

The Older Gods were faster, more physical, less fatigued and more aggressive than the Miami HEAT in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. What adjustments do the 3 Kings and Erik Spoelstra need to make for Game 6?

Fast: Advantage Spurs
Steals: HEAT 8, Spurs 5
Fast break points: Spurs 18, HEAT 16
Transition offense: Spurs 21 points on 14 plays, HEAT 15 points on 17 plays

Tony Parker and Danny Green each scored 6 points in transition for the Spurs.

Physical: Advantage Spurs
Offensive rebounding: HEAT grabbed 24% of missed shots, Spurs grabbed 17% of missed shots
Pick & rolls and post-ups: HEAT 26 points on 36 plays, Spurs 17 points on 21 plays
Isolation: Spurs 27 points on 19 plays, HEAT 7 points on 11 plays
Points in the paint: Spurs 50, HEAT 40

Spurs scored 17 points in the paint off isolation plays (including free throws). Tony Parker scored 13 points in isolation and shot 9-9 in the paint for the game.

Free Space: Advantage Spurs
Spot-ups: Spurs 34 points on 28 plays, HEAT 30 points on 20 plays

Green scored 11 points on spot-ups as he continued to bomb the HEAT out of the gym.

Fatigue: Advantage Spurs
4th quarter execution
  • Spurs: 27 points, 65% shooting efficiency, 6 turnovers, 2 off. rebounds, 5-6 free throw shooting, increased probability of winning the game 14%
  • HEAT: 29 points, 60% shooting efficiency, 5 turnovers, 4 off. rebounds, 5-7 free throw shooting, increased probability of winning the game 7%

Tony Parker dominated the 4th quarter with 9 points on 4 shots and 4 free throws. He also had 2 assists and increased the Spurs' chance of winning by 11% in the 4th quarter. Parker got whatever he wanted to keep the Spurs' lead in double digits down the stretch.

Foul Trouble: Advantage Spurs
Fouls: Spurs 21, HEAT 24
Free throws (FTs) per shot ratio: Spurs 21 FTs on 70 shots (30%), HEAT 19 FTs on 86 shots (22%)

Parker and Manu Ginobili each got to the free throw line 8 times. Here's a list of the HEAT players that put them on the FT line: Ray Allen (twice), Mike Miller (twice), Cole, Wade, Udonis Haslem, Shaved Monkey Nuts aka Shane Battier.

Most Productive Players
This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Tony Parker and Tim Duncan were the most productive players on the floor. Each of them increased the Spurs' chance of winning 27%. Parker did it with 26 points on 10-14 shooting, 5 assists and 3 turnovers. Duncan did it with 17 points, 70% shooting, 12 rebounds, 3 blocks and just 1 foul.

Combined with Parker and Duncan, Manu Ginobili's 24 points, 61% shooting efficiency and 10 assists increased the Spurs' chance of winning by 73%. The Older Gods completely outplayed the 3 Kings, who only increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 28%.

Chris Bosh was the most productive of the 3 Kings with 16 points, 64% shooting and 6 rebounds to increase the HEAT's chance of winning 12%.  Dwyane Wade and LeBron James were ineffective as they combined to shoot 9-25 in the paint and commit 7 turnovers.

If the 3 Kings don't reassert their dominance over the Older Gods, then Game 6 will be a repeat of 2011.

Ray Allen was the most productive HEAT player and the only professional in the 4th quarter as he single-handedly kept the game from being a blowout. Allen increased the HEAT's chance of winning 24% with 21 points, 90% shooting efficiency (4-4 from three) and 4 rebounds. 15 of Allen's 21 points came in the 4th quarter when he increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 22%.

Least Productive Players
Gary Neal, the hero of Game 3, was the least productive player in the game. He decreased the Spurs' chance of winning by 15% with just 2 points on 1-4 shooting with 1 turnover and 2 fouls.

Mario Chalmers was the least productive HEAT player with 7 points on 2-10 shooting, 2 turnovers and 5 fouls. As bad as 'Rio was, Norris Cole only played 6.5 minutes in the game because he wasn't any better. Cole decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 8% with 0 points, 0-1 shooting, 1 turnover and 1 foul as he got TORCHED by Tony Parker.

The game was tied 17-17 and Parker had 0 points and 0 assists when Cole checked into the game with 4:32 left in the 1st quarter. Parker proceeded to score or assist on 5 of the Spurs' next 6 possessions for 7 points and 1 dime. The Spurs were up 27-17 when Parker checked out the game 3 minutes later.

That story leads to the biggest adjustment coach Erik Spoelstra should make for Game 6...

No Point Guards & Lineup Adjustments

No Cole in Game 6. Short lease for Chalmers if he's turning the ball over and missing shots. Replace Chalmers with Ray Allen, Mike Miller or James Jones when he comes out the game - anybody EXCEPT Shaved Monkey Nuts. This series has become a shootout, so the HEAT can't put players out there firing blanks. That was a big part of the problem after they cut the lead to 74-75 with 3:05 left in the 3rd quarter.

At 74-75, there was 1 unproductive player in the HEAT lineup - Shaved Monkey Nuts (-0.188 est.WP48 in the Finals). The Spurs ran off a 13-1 run as Spo ADDED the following unproductive players to the lineup to play together:
  • Cole (-0.003 est.WP48 in the Finals)
  • UD (-0.125 est.WP48 in the Finals)
  • Miller (0.177 est.WP48 in the Finals)

Spo put 4 unproductive players on the floor at the SAME TIME in the crucial moment of a game that he said he wanted to be the team's best effort. He sabotaged the team's best effort with that lineup and made it worse by adding Chalmers to the mix to start the 4th quarter and the Spurs continued to roll until the run was 21-2 and the game was out of reach. At this point in the series, if Rio has a bad 1st/3rd quarter, he shouldn't play in the 2nd/4th quarter. Spo should go to the No PG Lineup.

Without PGs, let Wade or LeBron guard Parker while the other wing player guards Danny Green. Let Bosh make up for any energy Wade and LeBron lose on offense after guarding Parker since Bosh scored efficiently the last 2 games.

The 3 Kings need to show up in Game 6 and Spo-proof the game in case the lineups don't put them in the best position to win.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced by all players estimated from the box score for Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

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