Dwyane Wade's knee injury has literally turned his offense into half-Wade, less amazing this postseason. This article breaks down the areas his performance declined and the impact it's had on the HEAT's ability to win games.
This article uses the Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced statistics created by sports economist David Berri. Win Score is a simple measure of player production that = PTS-FGA-FTA/2+OREB+AST/2-TOV+DREB/2+STL+BLK/2-PF/2. Win Score can be used to estimate a player's wins produced per 48 minutes. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.
Wade's production in the regular season increased the HEAT's chance of winning each game by an estimated 18%. In the postseason, his production on the bruised knee has only increased the HEAT's chance of winning each game by an estimated 10%.
In the HEAT's 12 playoff wins, Wade's production increased the team's chance of winning by an estimated 13%. In the HEAT's 5 playoff losses, his production only increased the team's chance of winning by an estimated 1.5%.
The table below lists Wade's production in each playoff game this postseason.
By the numbers, Wade was the most productive shooting guard in the NBA this season. Compared to his production in the regular season, Wade's performance in the postseason has declined in every area except free throw shooting, offensive rebounding, turnovers and shot-blocking.
Wade's knee injury has affected his offense more than anything. His scoring is down 34% from the regular season because he's getting to the free throw line 38% less, he's taking 22% less shots and his shooting efficiency is down 15%. It also doesn't help that his turnover rate remains the same despite taking a smaller role in the offense, but he's counteracted that by crashing the offensive glass more.
Overall, Wade's production has declined 46% in the playoffs - from a 9.0 Win Score per 48 minutes (WS48) in the regular season to just 4.9 WS48 in the postseason. The table below compares Wade's regular season and postseason stats (negative changes highlighted in red).
|PTS PER SHOT|| |
The HEAT will have to step up the defense if they want to defend their title with Wade at 50% or find ways to get him easier buckets and increase his offensive production on that bad knee. It will be interesting to see whether Coach Erik Spoelstra, Wade and LeBron James can find a way to solve this problem for 4 more wins and a 3rd HEAT championship.