Sunday, June 9, 2013

Dwyane Wade: Half-Man, Less Amazing On 1 Leg This Postseason



Dwyane Wade's knee injury has literally turned his offense into half-Wade, less amazing this postseason. This article breaks down the areas his performance declined and the impact it's had on the HEAT's ability to win games.

This article uses the Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced statistics created by sports economist David Berri. Win Score is a simple measure of player production that = PTS-FGA-FTA/2+OREB+AST/2-TOV+DREB/2+STL+BLK/2-PF/2. Win Score can be used to estimate a player's wins produced per 48 minutes. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Wade's production in the regular season increased the HEAT's chance of winning each game by an estimated 18%. In the postseason, his production on the bruised knee has only increased the HEAT's chance of winning each game by an estimated 10%.

In the HEAT's 12 playoff wins, Wade's production increased the team's chance of winning by an estimated 13%. In the HEAT's 5 playoff losses, his production only increased the team's chance of winning by an estimated 1.5%.

The table below lists Wade's production in each playoff game this postseason.

Est. Wins Produced by Wade in 2013 Playoffs
WHEN PLAYER MINS Est.WP48 Est.WP OPP WHERE RESULT
4/21/2013 D Wade 32.4 0.203 0.137 MIL HOME W
4/23/2013 D Wade 32.4 0.385 0.260 MIL HOME W
4/25/2013 D Wade 36.0 0.073 0.055 MIL AWAY W
5/6/2013 D Wade 33.5 0.036 0.025 CHI HOME L
5/8/2013 D Wade 28.3 0.258 0.152 CHI HOME W
5/10/2013 D Wade 35.6 0.112 0.083 CHI AWAY W
5/13/2013 D Wade 28.6 -0.129 -0.077 CHI AWAY W
5/15/2013 D Wade 36.9 0.316 0.243 CHI HOME W
5/22/2013 D Wade 40.7 0.316 0.242 IND HOME W
5/24/2013 D Wade 40.5 0.003 0.003 IND HOME L
5/26/2013 D Wade 35.5 0.329 0.243 IND AWAY W
5/28/2013 D Wade 37.3 0.013 0.010 IND AWAY L
5/30/2013 D Wade 40.6 0.111 0.094 IND HOME W
6/1/2013 D Wade 33.9 0.057 0.041 IND AWAY L
6/3/2013 D Wade 35.4 0.067 0.050 IND HOME W
6/6/2013 D Wade 35.6 -0.004 -0.003 SAS HOME L

By the numbers, Wade was the most productive shooting guard in the NBA this season. Compared to his production in the regular season, Wade's performance in the postseason has declined in every area except free throw shooting, offensive rebounding, turnovers and shot-blocking.

Wade's knee injury has affected his offense more than anything. His scoring is down 34% from the regular season because he's getting to the free throw line 38% less, he's taking 22% less shots and his shooting efficiency is down 15%. It also doesn't help that his turnover rate remains the same despite taking a smaller role in the offense, but he's counteracted that by crashing the offensive glass more.

Overall, Wade's production has declined 46% in the playoffs - from a 9.0 Win Score per 48 minutes (WS48) in the regular season to just 4.9 WS48 in the postseason. The table below compares Wade's regular season and postseason stats (negative changes highlighted in red).

Wade 2013 Postseason vs. Reg. Season
WADE PLAYOFFS REG.SEASON CHANGE
PTS PER SHOT
0.90
1.06
-15%
ADJ.SHOT%
45%
53%
-8%
FT%
74%
73%
1%
SA48
17.1
21.9
-22%
FTA48
5.3
8.5
-38%
PTS48
19.3
29.4
-34%
OREB48
2.6
1.7
53%
DREB48
4.1
5.2
-21%
REB48
6.7
6.9
-3%
STL48
2.2
2.6
-15%
TO48
3.9
3.9
0%
BLK48
1.3
1.1
18%
AST48
6.6
7.1
-7%
PF48
3.2
2.8
-14%
WS48
4.9
9.0
-46%

The HEAT will have to step up the defense if they want to defend their title with Wade at 50% or find ways to get him easier buckets and increase his offensive production on that bad knee. It will be interesting to see whether Coach Erik Spoelstra, Wade and LeBron James can find a way to solve this problem for 4 more wins and a 3rd HEAT championship.

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