Tuesday, June 18, 2013

HEAT Check: The Difference Between HEAT vs. Thunder Then and Spurs Now


LeBron James, Mario Chalmers, Udonis Haslem and Dwyane Wade were more productive against the Thunder in the 2012 NBA Finals than they've been against the Spurs in the 2013 NBA Finals. Let's take a look at the numbers to see where their production's declined.

Joe Goodman Jr. from the Miami Herald posted a comparison of the HEAT offense vs. the Thunder in 2012 to the Spurs in 2013 after 5 games. He noted the biggest difference was the 7-point drop in LeBron James' scoring average.

Let's do the same comparison using Est. Wins Produced.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Est. Wins Produced by HEAT in 5 Games of 2013 NBA Finals
PLAYER GP MIN EWP48 EST WP
L James 5 206.3 0.184 0.791
C Bosh 5 174.2 0.209 0.758
R Allen 5 131.9 0.159 0.436
M Miller 5 103.6 0.177 0.383
D Wade 5 179.5 0.100 0.372
J Anthony 4 15.0 0.346 0.108
M Chalmers 5 138.2 0.022 0.065
C Andersen 3 38.2 0.031 0.025
N Cole 5 81.7 -0.003 -0.006
J Jones 3 11.8 -0.188 -0.046
R Lewis 3 11.8 -0.444 -0.109
U Haslem 5 61.9 -0.125 -0.161
S Battier 5 45.9 -0.188 -0.180

Est. Wins Produced by HEAT in 5 Games of 2012 NBA Finals
PLAYER GP MIN EWP48 EST WP
L James 5 220.4 0.223 1.024
D Wade 5 203.2 0.131 0.553
C Bosh 5 182.8 0.142 0.541
M Chalmers 5 182.5 0.117 0.445
M Miller 5 44.6 0.337 0.313
S Battier 5 187.3 0.078 0.304
U Haslem 5 81.4 0.035 0.059
T Harris 1 3.0 0.690 0.043
J Jones 4 42.9 0.038 0.034
R Turiaf 1 3.0 0.164 0.010
J Anthony 1 2.1 -0.052 -0.002
J Howard 1 3.0 -0.650 -0.041
N Cole 4 43.9 -0.168 -0.154

Then and Now
Based on est. wins produced, the order of the blame game for biggest drops in production from the 2012 NBA Finals to the 2013 NBA Finals is as follows:
  1. Shaved Monkey Nuts
  2. Mario Chalmers
  3. LeBron James
  4. Udonis Haslem
  5. Dwyane Wade
Chris Bosh and Mike Miller's production improved from 2012 to 2013 (they're a lot healthier).

Here's how the differences shake out...
  • LeBron in 2013:
    • 3 mpg less than 2012 (but some Corporate Heaux Bloggers will tell you he's exhausted)
    • Increased HEAT chance of winning 4.6% less per game than 2012
    • Shooting efficiency is 2% lower from the floor, 9% lower from the free throw line
    • Free throw attempts decreased by 5.6 per 48 minutes
    • Scoring 6 less points per 48 minutes
    • 1 less offensive rebound per 48 minutes, 2.4 more defensive rebounds per 48 minutes
    • 1.8 less turnovers per 48 minutes
    • 1 more steal per 48 minutes
    • 0.8 more blocks per 48 minutes
    • 1 less foul per 48 minutes
  • Dwyane Wade in 2013:
    • Nearly 5 mpg less than 2012
    • Increased HEAT chance of winning 3.6% less per game than 2012
    • Shooting efficiency is 3.5% higher from the floor
    • Shot attempts increased 2.4 per 48 minutes
    • Free throw attempts decreased 4.6 per 48 minutes
    • Defensive rebounds decreased 3.6 per 48 minutes
    • Steals increased 1.5 per 48 minutes
    • Turnovers decreased 0.9 per 48 minutes
    • Assists increased 1.1 per 48 minutes
    • Fouls decreased 1.9 per 48 minutes
  • Chris Bosh in 2013:
    • 1.7 mpg less than 2012
    • Increased HEAT chance of winning 4.3% more per game than 2012
    • Shooting efficiency 4% higher from the floor, 9.6% lower from the free throw line
    • Steals increased 2 per 48 minutes
    • Blocks increased 0.6 per 48 minutes
    • Assists increased 2.7 per 48 minutes
    • Fouls increased 1.5 per 48 minutes
  • Mario Chalmers in 2013:
    • Nearly 9 mpg less than 2012
    • Increased HEAT chance of winning 7.6% less per game than 2012
    • Shooting efficiency 12% lower from the floor
    • Shot attempts increased 2.9 per 48 minutes
    • Defensive rebounds increased 1.7 per 48 minutes
    • Steals decreased 1.4 per 48 minutes
    • Turnovers increased 1.2 per 48 minutes
    • Blocks decreased 0.5 per 48 minutes
    • Assists decreased 1.5 per 48 minutes
  • Udonis Haslem in 2013:
    • Nearly 4 mpg less than 2012
    • Decreased HEAT chance of winning 4.4% more per game than 2012
    • Shooting efficiency 4.5% higher from the floor
    • Shot attempts increased 1 per 48 minutes
    • Free throw attempts decreased 2.7 per 48 minutes
    • Offensive rebounds decreased 1.6 per 48 minutes
    • Defensive rebounds increased 1.8 per 48 minutes
    • Turnovers decreased 2.1 per 48 minutes
    • Blocks decreased 0.4 per 48 minutes
    • Assists decreased 1.2 per 48 minutes
    • Fouls increased 3.6 per 48 minutes
  • Shaved Monkey Nuts aka Shane Battier in 2013:
    • 28 mpg less than 2012
    • Decreased HEAT chance of winning 9.7% more per game than 2012
    • Shooting efficiency 56% lower from the floor
    • Shot attempts decreased 7.8 per 48 minutes
    • Scoring 2.4 points less per 48 minutes
    • Defensive rebounds increased 2.5 per 48 minutes
    • Steals decreased 1 per 48 minutes
    • Blocks increased 2.1 per 48 minutes
    • Assists increased 4.7 per 48 minutes
    • Fouls increased 1.9 per 48 minutes
  • Mike Miller in 2013:
    • Nearly 12 mpg more than 2012
    • Increased HEAT chance of winning 1.4% more per game than 2012
    • Shooting efficiency 33% higher from the floor
    • Shot attempts decreased 11.2 per 48 minutes
    • Free throw attempts decreased 6.5 per 48 minutes
    • Scoring decreased 20 points per 48 minutes
    • Defensive rebounds decreased 4.4 per 48 minutes
    • Turnovers increased 0.9 per 48 minutes
    • Blocks decreased 0.6 per 48 minutes
    • Fouls decreased 5.1 per 48 minutes

Original data from NBA.com and PopcornMachine.net.

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