Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Miami HEAT 5 Factors for the Finals: Fast, Physical, Free Space, Fatigue & Foul Trouble



Miami HEAT trail the San Antonio Spurs 1-2 because they played weaker physically and mentally in 4 of the 5 factors for the NBA Finals.

The 5 factors critical to the HEAT's success in the NBA Finals are based on their Pace & Space identity. The HEAT need to be fast and physical for free space to create fatigue and foul trouble for the Spurs. An earlier recap reported how the HEAT performed in these areas for Game 3. This post reports how the HEAT are performing in these areas for the series.

Fast: Advantage HEAT
Fast break points: HEAT 11 ppg, Spurs 9 ppg
Transition offense: HEAT 16 ppg on 12 plays, Spurs 12 ppg on 10 plays
Steals: HEAT 7 per game, Spurs 6 per game

Dwyane Wade is using the most transition plays for the HEAT at 27%, but his scoring efficiency is just average at 0.7 points per play in the Finals. LeBron James used the 2nd most at 24% and his scoring efficiency is very good at 1.56 points per play in the Finals.

Physical: Advantage Spurs
Offensive rebound rate: Spurs 30.3%, HEAT 22.5%
Points in the paint: Spurs 39 ppg, HEAT 37 ppg
Pick-and-rolls & post-ups: Spurs 28 ppg on 32 plays, HEAT 25 ppg on 32 plays

Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard are killing the HEAT on the glass with 8.6 offensive rebounds per game.

Duncan, Leonard, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili do the same amount of damage in the paint as LeBron, Wade and Birdman. The Spurs advantage comes from Tiago Splitter and their reserves scoring in the paint more than Chris Bosh and the HEAT reserves. See stats.nba.com for more info.

Parker and Duncan ran half the Spurs pick-and-rolls but the HEAT held them to an average level of production. Duncan's post-ups are the difference in physical play. He's responsible for 74% of the Spurs plays in the post and is scoring at an above average rate (0.79 points per play). Udonis Haslem and Birdman seem to be adequate defenders against Old Man Riverwalk but Bosh doesn't seem to do well without help.

Free Space: Advantage Spurs
Spot ups: Spurs 34 ppg on 31 plays, HEAT 26 ppg on 23 plays

Danny Green and Gary Neal are taking 43% of the Spurs spot ups and scoring with excellent and very good efficiency at 1.8 and 1.45 points per play, respectively.

Fatigue: Advantage Spurs
4th quarter execution
  • Spurs: 26 ppg, increased chance of winning by 20% per game
  • HEAT: 19 ppg, decreased chance of winning by 0.5% per game

Wade is the least productive HEAT player in the 4th quarter. He's decreasing the team's chance of winning by 9% per game in the 4th quarter with just 25% shooting efficiency and the 2nd-highest rate of shot attempts on the HEAT.

HEAT 4th Quarter Analysis for 2013 Finals
NAME QTR MIN Est WP48 Est WP
L James 4 44.6 0.537 0.5
J Anthony 4 21.4 0.343 0.2
M Miller 4 24.0 0.176 0.1
C Andersen 4 10.1 0.526 0.1
R Allen 4 25.3 0.091 0
M Chalmers 4 23.2 -0.095 0
S Battier 4 21.4 -0.273 -0.1
R Lewis 4 10.7 -0.324 -0.1
C Bosh 4 36.4 -0.13 -0.1
N Cole 4 41.8 -0.217 -0.2
J Jones 4 21.4 -0.478 -0.2
D Wade 4 33.8 -0.393 -0.3

Foul Trouble: Advantage Spurs
Fouls: Spurs 13 per game, HEAT 17 per game
Free throws (FTs) per shot ratio: Spurs 12 FTs on 83 shots per game (15%), HEAT 10 FTs on 79 shots per game (13%)

Duncan, Parker and Ginobili are getting to the free throw line an average of 15 times per 48 minutes while Wade, Bosh and LeBron are only making an average of 10 trips to the line per 48 minutes.

Stats taken from Synergy SportsNBA.com and PopcornMachine.net unless stated otherwise.

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