Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Miami HEAT Out-Hustled & Out-Gunned in Game 3 of the NBA Finals



Miami HEAT must be fast and physical to create fatigue and foul trouble for the San Antonio Spurs if they want to defend their NBA title. They lost all four of those areas in Game 3 of the 2013 NBA Finals and got shot out the building by 36 points.

Here's how the HEAT performance broke down in terms of Fast, Physical, Fatigue & Foul Trouble in Game 3...

Fast: Advantage Spurs
Fast break points: Spurs 20, HEAT 11
Transition offense: HEAT 22 points on 15 plays, Spurs 20 points on 11 plays
Steals: Spurs 10, HEAT 9

Physical: Advantage Spurs
Offensive rebounds: Spurs 19, HEAT 9
Points in the paint: Spurs 40, HEAT 32
Pick-and-rolls & post-ups: Spurs 31 points on 29 plays, HEAT 26 points on 34 plays

Fatigue: Advantage Spurs
4th quarter execution
  • Spurs: 35 points on 68% shooting, 1 turnover, 3 off. rebounds, 1-3 free throw shooting
  • HEAT: 14 points on 33% shooting, 3 turnovers, 2 off. rebounds, 1-2 free throw shooting

Foul Trouble: Advantage Spurs
Fouls: Spurs 13, HEAT 21
Free throws (FTs) per shot ratio: Spurs 11 FTs on 88 shots (12.5%), HEAT 7 FTs on 76 shots (9.2%)

Most Productive Players in Game 3
Danny Green was the most productive player in Game 3 of the NBA Finals with 27 points, 7 threes, 83% shooting efficiency, 4 rebounds, 2 blocks, 2 steals and just 1 foul that increased the Spurs' probability of winning by 38%. He's literally bombing the HEAT out of the series from 3 with 90% shooting efficiency over 3 games. The HEAT defense is making a D-Leaguer look like a Finals MVP. This whole paragraph is unfathomable.

Kawhi Leonard was the 2nd-most productive player in Game 3 with 14 points, 12 rebounds, 4 steals and 2 fouls that increased the Spurs' probability of winning by 35%. He's outplaying the NBA's 4-time MVP in this series by increasing the Spurs' chances of winning each game 5% more than LeBron James' production is helping the HEAT.

Gary Neal was the 3rd-most productive player in Game 3 with 24 points, 6 threes, 71% shooting efficiency, 4 rebounds and 3 assists in 25 minutes that increased the Spurs' probability of winning by 23%. Neal was terrible in Games 1-2 and they say the sun shines on a dog's ass every now and then, but he was the sun and the HEAT were the dog's ass in Game 3.

Mike Miller was the most productive HEAT player in Game 3 with 15 points on 5 threes that increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 22%. Miller has played half as many minutes as LeBron in the Finals but has just as many estimated wins produced. That speaks to how well he's playing in the series, but it also illustrates how poorly LeBron's playing. LeBron decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 8% in Game 3.

Least Productive Players in Game 3
Mario Chalmers went from being the 2nd-most productive player in Game 2 to the least productive player in Game 3. Rio decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 22% with 0 points, 0-5 shooting, 4 turnovers and 4 fouls.

Manu Ginobili continued his declining performance with just 7 points, 43% shooting efficiency, 6 assists, 2 turnovers and 2 fouls in 23 minutes that decreased the Spurs' chance of winning by 11%. The good news for HEAT fans is that Dwyane Wade had his most productive game of the Finals. The bad news for HEAT fans is that he only increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 3%. That's 6 times lower than his regular season production and 1/3rd of his playoff production this year.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced for all players estimated from the boxscore for Game 3 of the NBA Finals.



Stats for transition, pick-and-roll and post-up plays taken from mysynergysports.com. Boxscore and play-by-play data taken from NBA.com and PopcornMachine.net.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Post a Comment