Saturday, July 13, 2013

HEAT Summer League: Ian Clark Dominated His Final Game in Orlando But Chose Not To Play With Miami in Vegas



Ian Clark's performance in the final HEAT game of the Orlando Summer League left no doubt that he deserves an invitation to training camp while Jarvis Varnado still has something to prove when the HEAT begin playing in the Las Vegas Summer League on Saturday.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 40 minutes (Est.WP40) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Most Productive Players
Ian Clark was the most productive player in the HEAT's final game of the Orlando Summer League. He increased the HEAT chance of winning by 47% with 18 points, 54% shooting efficiency, 7 assists, 1 turnover and 6 steals in 36 minutes for 0.523 est.WP40. Clark was the only member of the HEAT summer league team in Orlando that played in all 5 games and lead the team in minutes and estimated wins produced. He was the 3rd most productive player on a per-minute basis with above average production in scoring, shooting volume and efficiency, steals, turnovers and defending without fouling.

Clark needs to improve his play-making and rebounding (which will be tough for someone his size), but he earned an invitation to training camp with his play in Orlando. Whether he would accept it depends how his run with the Golden State Warriors goes in the Las Vegas Summer League. The HEAT tried to keep him on their team in Vegas, but couldn't convince him.


D.J. Stephens was the 2nd most productive player in the HEAT's final game of the Orlando Summer League. He increased the HEAT chance of winning by 19% with 11 points, 5-6 shooting (mostly highlight dunks), 3 rebounds, 1 steal and 2 blocks in 17 minutes for 0.439 est.WP40. Stephens had the highest vertical leap in NBA Combine history according to NBA TV and was twice as productive as the average player in a HEAT summer league game, but I don't see a place for him on the roster. He only ranked 11th in minutes played in Orlando, so the HEAT didn't appear too interested in him, either. His production was above average in every category of the boxscore except getting to the free throw line, free throw shooting, steals, assists and fouling. He could be worth a training camp invitation if he isn't signed by the Dallas Mavericks after playing for them in the Vegas Summer League.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced stats estimated for all players from the boxscore of the HEAT's final Orlando Summer League game.



Players to Watch
Here's how the other players to watch highlighted in the Summer League Preview produced in the final game at Orlando:
  • Andre Drummond dominated the paint with 15 points (6-7 shooting) and 14 rebounds while Jarvis Varnado was on a plane to Vegas. He increased the Pistons' chance of winning by 27% in 24 minutes for 0.447 est.WP40.
  • Dwight Buycks (guard from Marquette) was dominating the Orlando Summer League with the OKC Thunder and going to play for the HEAT in the Vegas Summer League but signed a contract with the Raptors instead. He would have been an interesting addition in training camp to compete for a spot on the roster as the third point guard. Masai Ujiri is a damn menace.
  • Vincent Council (guard from Providence) was the least productive HEAT player in the final Orlando Summer League game. He decreased the team's chance of winning by 21% and was the least productive HEAT player overall in Orlando with -0.3 est. wins produced. His performance was below average in every category except rebounding and assists. No training camp invitation for him.
  • Dewayne Dedmon (center from USC) was the least productive HEAT big man in Orlando with -0.1 est. wins produced. His performance was below average in every category. No training camp invitation for him.
  • Michael Dunigan (center from Oregon) struggled to a below average performance against Drummond with just 2 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block and 3 fouls in 26 minutes. He ended the Orlando Summer League with below average production overall due to poor performances in rebounding, steals and fouling. No training camp invitation for him.
  • Cedric Jackson (guard from Cleveland State) performed below average in the final Orlando Summer League game with 3 points, 1-5 shooting, 11 assists and 3 turnovers in 25 minutes for 0.069 est.WP40. Jackson was the 4th most productive HEAT player in Orlando, but there are two big reasons why he shouldn't be invited to training camp - he can't shoot and he turns the ball over too much. Jackson's shooting efficiency was 33% from the floor and 54% from the free throw line with 6.7 turnovers per 40 minutes (2nd worst on the HEAT).
  • Myck Kabongo (guard from Texas) was the 2nd least productive HEAT guard in the Orlando Summer League with -0.1 est. wins produced. His performance was below average in every category except getting to the free throw line, steals, turnovers, shot-blocking and fouling. He needs to put on a helluva show in Vegas to be considered for a training camp invitation at this point.
  • Jarvis Varnado was the most productive HEAT big man in Orlando but his performance was just average overall with 0.120 est.WP40. His production was only above average in getting to the free throw line, offensive rebounding, steals, taking care of the ball and blocked shots. Varnado needs to play much better in Vegas. He should be required to dominate summer league competition to deserve a spot in training camp, no matter how much the HEAT may need more athletic size on the roster.

The spreadsheet below summarizes the production for all HEAT players in the 2013 Orlando Summer League.



Original data taken from nba.com.

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