Monday, July 22, 2013

HEAT Summer League: James Ennis, James Nunnally, D.J. Kennedy and Ian Clark Earned Training Camp Invitations



Miami HEAT went into the Summer Leagues needing a point guard and power forward and then waived Mike Miller. After losing their last game in Vegas, it was clear they found 3 winners of the "Chance to Replace Mike Miller Sweepstakes" but probably need to keep looking for a power forward. After their last game in Orlando, it was clear they found a potential point guard. That's not a bad summer's work for the front office.

This article uses the Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced statistics created by sports economist David Berri. Players with an average Win Score per 40 minutes (WS40) for their position increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 40 minutes (Est.WP40) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Most Productive Players
James Ennis, the HEAT's 2013 2nd round draft pick, was the most productive HEAT player this summer with an estimated 1.6 wins produced. His performance was above average for his position in every category of the boxscore except turnovers, shot-blocking and assists. Ennis is the leader in the "Chance to Replace Mike Miller Sweepstakes" with 7.5 rebounds per 40 minutes and 39% shooting from the 3-point line. His weakness is that his assist-to-turnover ratio was a poor 0.4:1. Miller produced a 2.9:1 assist-to-turnover ratio last season while grabbing 7 rebounds per 40 minutes and shot 42% from the 3-point line.

D.J. Kennedy, the 6-6 D-League all-star from St. John's, was the 2nd most productive HEAT player this summer with an estimated 1.3 wins produced. His performance was above average in getting to the free throw line and knocking them down, defensive rebounding, turnovers, assists and fouls. Kennedy's performance was below average with 0.074 est.WP40 in 4 games of the Orlando Summer League but well above average with 0.253 est.WP40 in 7 games of the Vegas Summer League. Ball-handling is his advantage in the "Replace Mike Miller" competition with a 1.3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. His 46% shooting efficiency is his biggest weakness compared to Miller's 59% shooting efficiency last season.

James Nunnally, the 6-7 swingman from the D-League's All-Rookie 3rd Team, was the 3rd most productive HEAT player this summer with an estimated 1.1 wins produced. His performance was above average in shooting efficiency & volume, scoring, turnovers, assists and fouls. Nunny's performance was terrible in the Orlando Summer League with -0.044 est.WP40 produced in limited minutes but he blew up in Vegas when he started shooting the lights out and produced 0.339 est.WP40. There should be no doubt what Nunny's strength is - shooting the rock. His 69% shooting efficiency (20-39 from the 3-point line) in 10 games this summer is ridiculous. His weaknesses are rebounding and defense, but...


Ian Clark, the 6-2 guard from Belmont with potential to shoot like Ray and defend like Cole, was the 4th most productive HEAT player this summer with an estimated 0.8 wins produced despite only playing for the team in 5 games of the Orlando Summer League. His performance in Orlando was above average in shooting efficiency, scoring, steals, turnovers and fouls. He produced a 2.6 Win Score per 40 minutes (WS40) for the Golden State Warriors in the Vegas Summer League, which was 3 times more productive than the average guard in a HEAT game. Clark's a big Stephen Curry fan that turned down the opportunity to play with the HEAT in Vegas so it may not be an easy task for the front office to get him into training camp. They should do whatever it takes.

The spreadsheet below summarizes the wins produced stats estimated from the boxscores for all HEAT summer league games.



Vegas Summer League Summary
The spreadsheet below summarizes the wins produced stats estimated from the boxscores for all HEAT summer league games in Las Vegas.



Orlando Summer League Summary
The spreadsheet below summarizes the wins produced stats estimated from the boxscores for all HEAT summer league games in Orlando.



Players to Watch
Here's how the other players to watch highlighted in the Summer League Preview produced in the HEAT's Summer League games:
  • Dwight Buycks (guard from Marquette) produced a 7.8 WS40 in the Orlando and Vegas Summer Leagues for the Oklahoma City Thunder and Toronto Raptors, respectively. That's 5.5 times more productive than the average guard in a HEAT summer league game. He was supposed to play for the HEAT in the Vegas Summer League but Raptors GM Masai Ujiri signed him to a contract before the Orlando Summer League was over.
  • Vincent Council (guard from Providence) was the least productive HEAT player in the summer leagues with an estimated -0.3 wins produced in 62.5 minutes played over 4 games for -0.194 est.WP40. No training camp invitation for him.
  • Dewayne Dedmon (center from USC) was the least productive HEAT big man in the summer leagues with an estimated -0.1 wins produced in 35.6 minutes played over 3 games for -0.125 est.WP40. No training camp invitation for him.
  • LeRon Dendy (center from Middle Tennessee State) did not play for the HEAT in the summer leagues.
  • Larry Drew II (guard from UCLA) did not play for the HEAT in the summer leagues.
  • Michael Dunigan (center from Oregon) provided below average production this summer with 0.053 est.WP40. His performance was below average in every category except free throw shooting, getting to the free throw line, turnovers, blocks and assists.
  • Cedric Jackson (guard from Cleveland State) was productive with 0.167 est.WP40. His performance was above average in getting to the free throw line, rebounding, steals, assists and fouls. He's not worth a training camp invitation because he can't shoot (33% shooting efficiency) and he turns the ball over too much (6.7 turnovers per 40 minutes).
  • Myck Kabongo (guard from Texas) produced a below average 0.077 est.WP40 in the summer leagues. His performance was below average in shooting efficiency (29%), free throw shooting (36%), scoring, offensive rebounding and turnovers. No training camp invitation for him.
  • Anthony Marshall (guard from UNLV) provided the 2nd worst production at PG with just 0.053 est.WP40. His performance was below average in every category except shooting efficiency and steals. No training camp invitation for him.
  • Ricky Sanchez (center from Puerto Rico) did not play for the HEAT in the summer leagues. Just when you thought the Dexter Pittman trade couldn't look worse.
  • Tony Taylor (guard from George Washington) was the 2nd most productive HEAT guard in the summer leagues with an estimated 0.5 wins produced in 138.9 minutes over 7 games for 0.158 est.WP40. His performance was above average in getting to the line, free throw shooting, offensive rebounding, assists and turnovers. He wasn't dominant enough to merit a training camp invitation, but he's more deserving than Kabongo or Cole's old backcourt partner from Cleveland State.
  • Jarvis Varnado was the most productive HEAT center in the summer leagues with an estimated 0.7 wins produced in 231 minutes over 10 games for 0.123 est.WP40. His performance was above average in getting to the free throw line, free throw shooting, offensive rebounding, steals, blocks and turnovers. Varnado's play was disappointing in the summer leagues. He's going to be in training camp, but he shouldn't be guaranteed a roster spot. The HEAT need to keep looking for a 3rd string big man.

The spreadsheet below lists the production for all players in the HEAT's final game of the Vegas Summer League against the Suns.



Original data taken from nba.com.

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