Wednesday, July 10, 2013

HEAT Summer League: James Ennis Breakthrough Game



Miami HEAT 2nd round draft pick James Ennis was the most productive player on the floor in the team's 94-80 domination of the Orlando Magic as they became the 1st team this year to sweep all 4 quarters in a summer league game.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 40 minutes (Est.WP40) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Most Productive Players
James Ennis was the most productive player in the HEAT's 3rd summer league game. He increased the HEAT chance of winning by 23% with 19 points, 55% shooting efficiency and 6 rebounds in 26.5 minutes. After being the 2nd most productive HEAT player in the first 2 games, Ennis finally broke through to be the most productive HEAT player in his toughest matchup so far - against Maurice Harkless, the Magic's starting small forward from last season. Harkless increased the Magic chance of winning by 13% in 22 minutes for an above average 0.235 est.WP40. Ennis has been the best HEAT player in Summer League so far.

Jarvis Varnado was the 2nd most productive player in the HEAT's 3rd summer league game. He increased the HEAT chance of winning by 22% with 16 points, 4-5 shooting from the floor and 8-12 from the free throw line in 23 minutes. Oddly enough, Varnado's first game with above average production was the game he didn't record a blocked shot. After his big game, Varnado is the 2nd most productive HEAT player in the Orlando Summer League.

2013 HEAT SUMMER LEAGUE SUMMARY
PLAYER GP MIN Est.WP40 Est.WP
J. Ennis 3 74.9 0.352 0.659
J. Varnado 3 79.3 0.152 0.302
C. Jackson 2 48.4 0.191 0.231
I. Clark 3 77.7 0.074 0.144
M. Dunigan 2 32.8 0.171 0.140
S. Hopson 3 66.2 0.076 0.125
E. Griffin 2 27.7 0.134 0.092
J. Carmichael 2 21.3 0.171 0.091
M. Kabongo 2 36.9 0.057 0.053
D. Stephens 2 19.1 0.108 0.051
J. Nunnally 1 12.6 0.001 0.000
D. Kennedy 2 35.3 -0.013 -0.011
V. Council 2 32.6 -0.075 -0.062
D. Dedmon 3 35.6 -0.125 -0.111

Players To Watch
Here's how the other players to watch highlighted in the Summer League Preview produced in the 3rd game at Orlando:
  • Victor Oladipo proved to be no Dwyane Wade with 5 turnovers against the HEAT's relentless traps & blitzing defense, but he still increased the Magic chance of winning by 18% in 27 minutes for an above average 0.269 est.WP40.
  • Dwight Buycks (guard from Marquette) racked up 13 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 turnover and 4 steals in 21.6 minutes against the Detroit Pistons for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Buycks' performance was overshadowed by Reggie Jackson scoring 35 points (23 in the 4th quarter), but he was more than 4 times as productive as the average guard in the HEAT's game against the Magic. Buycks' is scheduled to play with the HEAT summer league team in Las Vegas.
  • Ian Clark (guard from Belmont) played excellent defense on Oladipo and scored 15 points on 64% shooting efficiency, but he only increased the HEAT chance of winning by 4% in a team-high 29.6 minutes for a below average 0.050 est.WP40. Clark ranks 2nd on the team in minutes played, but he will have to find other areas to contribute on the floor like rebounding, steals or assists if he wants to be a productive NBA player.
  • Vincent Council (guard from Providence) decreased the HEAT chance of winning by 1% with 4 turnovers in 17 minutes.
  • Dewayne Dedmon (center from USC) decreased the HEAT chance of winning by 8% with 0 points, 0-2 shooting and 3 fouls in 9 minutes. He's the least productive HEAT player in the Orlando Summer League.
  • Michael Dunigan (center from Oregon) increased the HEAT chance of winning by 13% with 7 points, 5-6 free throw shooting, 7 rebounds, 3 blocks and 4 fouls in 17 minutes. Dunigan is the 2nd most productive HEAT big man in summer league, after Varnado.
  • Cedric Jackson (guard from Cleveland State) increased the HEAT chance of winning by 15% with 8 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 turnovers, 1 steal and 2 fouls in 23 minutes. Jackson's big game made him the most productive HEAT guard in the Orlando Summer League.
  • Myck Kabongo (guard from Texas) did not play against the Magic. He ranks 4th among HEAT guards in minutes played and estimated wins produced but his production is below average at 0.057 est.WP40. Maybe he'll have better luck in Vegas.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced stats estimated for all players from the boxscore of the Orlando Summer League game against the Nets.



Original data from nba.com.

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