Sunday, July 21, 2013

HEAT Summer League: Jarvis Varnado Had His Best Game of the Summer & James Ennis Is Having the Best Run In Vegas

Jarvis Varnado was dominant in the paint against the Cleveland Cavaliers to get the Miami HEAT into the Vegas Summer League semifinals, but 2013 2nd round draft pick James Ennis is the player that's been carrying the team in the desert.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 40 minutes (Est.WP40) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Most Productive Players
Jarvis Varnado's performance was below average in Vegas until he had his most productive game of the summer against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Summer League quarterfinals. He increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 23% with 13 points and 12 rebounds in 29 minutes for 0.311 est.WP40. Varnado's played the 3rd-most minutes for the HEAT in Vegas but his production only ranks 7th. Varnado's production has only been above average in 4 of 10 games this summer.

7/20 Varnado 28.9 0.311 0.225 CLE LV W
7/9 Varnado 22.7 0.383 0.217 ORL ORL W
7/14 Varnado 27.4 0.232 0.159 ATL LV L
7/17 Varnado 8.5 0.304 0.065 NYK LV W
7/7 Varnado 31.4 0.076 0.059 UTA ORL L
7/16 Varnado 24.3 0.054 0.033 MIN LV L
7/8 Varnado 25.2 0.041 0.026 BKN ORL W
7/11 Varnado 26.4 0.022 0.015 DET ORL L
7/13 Varnado 21.5 -0.032 -0.017 TOR LV W
7/18 Varnado 14.8 -0.182 -0.067 CHI LV W

James Ennis is the most productive player in Vegas after 6 games. He ranks 2nd in minutes played and his performance at guard is above average in every category except free throw shooting and assists. His performance at forward is above average in every category except offensive rebounding, turnovers, shot-blocking and assists.

J. Ennis 6 132.2 0.279 0.924
J. Nunnally 6 110.5 0.309 0.854
D. Kennedy 6 151.6 0.215 0.817
T. Leslie 5 81.2 0.289 0.588
T. Taylor 6 110.8 0.190 0.527
D. James 6 124.5 0.142 0.443
J. Varnado 6 125.4 0.127 0.397
M. Kabongo 3 38.8 0.237 0.230
J. Giddens 2 16.0 0.445 0.178
M. Dunigan 5 87.9 0.056 0.123
A. Marshall 6 103.8 0.040 0.105
J. Hagins 1 4.8 -0.708 -0.085
E. Griffin 6 112.9 -0.052 -0.146

Players to Watch
Here's how the other players to watch highlighted in the Summer League Preview produced in the HEAT's last 4 Vegas Summer League games:
  • Ian Clark (guard from Belmont) produced a 4.3 Win Score per 40 minutes (WS40) in his last 4 games for the Golden State Warriors. That's twice as productive as the average guard in a HEAT game for the Vegas Summer League. He also shot 50% from the 3-point line. If the HEAT want the most productive player from their Orlando Summer League team in training camp, they will probably have to outbid the Warriors for his services.
  • Vincent Council (guard from Providence) has not played for the HEAT in Vegas.
  • LeRon Dendy (center from Middle Tennessee State) has not played for the HEAT in Vegas.
  • Larry Drew (guard from UCLA) has not played for the HEAT in Vegas.
  • Michael Dunigan (center from Oregon) provided below average production in Vegas with 0.056 est.WP40. He's struggled on offense shooting just 26% from the floor.
  • Myck Kabongo (guard from Texas) was the most productive HEAT player in a 47-point blowout of the Knicks in Vegas. He increased the HEAT chance of winning by 35% with 9 points and 6 assists in 15.5 minutes for 0.914 est.WP40. It was his only above average game this summer but raised his overall performance in Vegas to an above-average level of 0.237 est.WP40.
  • Anthony Marshall (guard from UNLV) is the least productive HEAT guard in Vegas. He decreased the HEAT chance of beating the Cavs by 8%. His summer league performance is below average in every category except shooting efficiency and steals.
  • Ricky Sanchez (center from Puerto Rico) has not played for the HEAT in Vegas.
  • Tony Taylor (guard from George Washington) was the 2nd-most productive HEAT player against the Cavs. He increased the team's chance of winning by 21% with 6 points, 2 assists, 1 turnover and 2 steals in 20 minutes for 0.406 est.WP40. Taylor and the HEAT defense harassed the Cavs guards into 12 turnovers. Taylor is the most productive HEAT PG in Vegas with above average performance in getting to the free throw line, free throw shooting, assists, turnovers and steals.

The spreadsheet below lists the production for all players in the HEAT's Vegas Summer League game against the Cavs. This link has the boxscores for estimated wins produced in all HEAT summer league games.

Original data taken from

No comments:

Post a Comment