Saturday, July 6, 2013

On to the Offseason: Title Run Recap & Summer League Preview




A quick look at the predictions and production for the Miami HEAT playoff and summer league teams as the NBA offseason begins.

Title Run Recap
Picked winner of 11 series correctly.
Picked correct number of games in 4 series:
  • HEAT over Bucks in 4
  • Warriors over Nuggets in 6
  • Spurs over Lakers in 4
  • Pacers over Knicks in 6
Picked 4 series incorrectly:
  • Bulls over Nets in 7 games
  • Pacers over Hawks in 6 games
  • Grizzlies over Clippers in 6 games
  • Grizzlies over Thunder in 5 games

Enough about predictions. Let's review how the HEAT players produced the 16 wins needed to keep Larry in Miami.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

LeBron James was the most productive HEAT player in the playoffs with an estimated 5 wins produced. His production was above average in every category except free throw shooting and turnovers.

Dwyane Wade was the second most productive HEAT player in the playoffs with an estimated 2.2 wins produced. On 1 leg, his production was above average in every category except shooting efficiency, defensive rebounding and turnovers.

Birdman Chris Andersen was the third most productive HEAT player in the playoffs with an estimated 1.9 wins produced. His production was above average in every category except free throw shooting, shot volume, defensive rebounds, assists and fouls.

Shaved Monkey Nuts aka Shane Battier was the least productive HEAT player in the playoffs with an estimated -0.8 wins produced. His production was below average in every category except free throw shooting and turnovers.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced for all HEAT players estimated from the boxscores for the 2013 playoffs.



Offseason Preview



Miami HEAT players provided above average production at every position except point guard and power forward, based on the WP48 for each position estimated from data at hoopsstats.com (+0.100 est.WP48):
  • PG: 0.094 est.WP48
  • SG: 0.192 est.WP48
  • SF: 0.220 est.WP48
  • PF: 0.098 est.WP48
  • C: 0.105 est.WP48

The HEAT drafted SG James Ennis but he doesn't really address 1 of the positions where they need help, unless the rationale is that he'll enable LeBron to play more PF. I do think the HEAT need to begin looking for their future SG as Wade gets older, but I don't think Ennis is that player. Ennis ranked 16th in Win Score per 40 minutes (WS40) among NCAA guards for the 2013 season, according to data from the Wages of Wins.

Ennis will play on both HEAT summer league teams in Orlando and Las Vegas, where the team hopes to find a player to address 1 of the holes on their roster. Below is a quick rundown of how the other college players on the HEAT's summer league teams ranked in production at their position (for players with at least 350 minutes played).

Dwight Buycks (Guard, Vegas Summer League): The Marquette alum was MVP of the French national basketball league, but the 4.4 WS40 he produced was lower than 247 guards in NCAA basketball this season. He produced a 3.6 Win Score in his last season at Marquette.

Ian Clark (Guard, ORL Summer League): The Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year produced the 7th-best WS40 among NCAA guards in 2013.

Vincent Council (Guard): 1,037 NCAA guards were more productive than the PG from Providence that produced a -0.2 WS40 in 2013.

Dewayne Dedmon (Center, ORL Summer League): His 6.8 WS40 ranked 232nd among forwards and big men.

LeRon Dendy (Center): The 2012 Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year produced a 7.3 WS40 in the Greek Basketball League in 2013. 171 NCAA forwards and big men were more productive than him.

Larry Drew (Guard): His 4.6 WS40 ranked 227th among NCAA guards in 2013.

Michael Dunigan (Center): The 6.7 WS40 he produced in 2010 at Oregon was worse than 221 NCAA forwards and big men that played in the NCAA in 2013. He spent last season playing in the Philippine Basketball Association.

Cedric Jackson (Guard, ORL Summer League): The Cleveland State alum spent part of 2010 in the NBA. He was MVP of New Zealand's National Basketball League in 2013.

Myck Kabongo (Guard): The 4.8 WS40 he produced in 2013 for University of Texas was worse than 195 other NCAA guards.

Anthony Marshall (Guard, Vegas Summer League): His 5.6 WS40 ranked 120th among NCAA guards in 2013.

Ricky Sanchez (Forward, Vegas Summer League): The 26 year-old member of the Puerto Rican National Team traded for Dexter Pittman produced a 2.7 WS40 in his last D-League season 5 years ago. 891 NCAA forwards and big men produced a better Win Score than that in 2013.

Tony Taylor (Guard, Vegas Summer League): No info

Jarvis Varnado (Forward): He's the incumbent for 1 of the last 2 open roster spots.

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