Sunday, March 2, 2014

Udonis Haslem: Gone But Not Forgotten

Udonis Haslem's appearance in garbage time against the Orlando Magic was the first time he played in a month, but the HEAT will need him in the playoffs if history is any indicator.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

In last season's playoff run to back-to-back titles, only two HEAT players provided above average production in every series: LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.

Four other HEAT players provided above average production in three of the four playoff series last season: Chris Andersen, Chris Bosh, Norris Cole and Haslem.

UD increased the HEAT's chance of winning by:
  • 14% per 48 minutes vs. the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals
  • 20% per 48 minutes vs. the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Semifinals
  • 15% per 48 minutes vs. the Bucks in the Eastern Conference 1st round

UD has played in less than half of the HEAT's games this season and is averaging less than 13 minutes per game. He's been the least productive player on the HEAT this season, decreasing the team's chance of winning by 5% per 48 minutes. UD could use some reps before the playoffs so he can be in shape to help the HEAT make it to their 4th straight NBA Finals.

The spreadsheet below lists the estimated wins produced by each HEAT player and opponent in last season's playoff run.

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