Sunday, May 25, 2014

HEAT Produced: Game 3 of 2014 Eastern Conference Finals



Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Andersen dominated the frontcourt while Ray Allen and Norris Cole dominated the backcourt to help the HEAT blowout the Pacers in Game 3 of the 2014 Eastern Conference Finals.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Most Productive HEAT Players in Game 3
LeBron James and Dwyane Wade were the most productive players in Game 3. They played well enough to win the games by themselves. LeBron and Wade combined to increase the HEAT's chance of winning by 54.7% - it only takes 50.1% to win a ballgame.

They started out slow. LeBron decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 9.5% before he was subbed out the game with over 10 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter. Wade decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 8.6% in the 1st quarter. It was a different story after each checked back into the game in Q2.

Wade checked in first and increased the HEAT's chance of winning by an estimated 32.7% for the last 34 minutes of the game with 23 points on 14 shots and 4 free throws, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 turnovers, 3 steals, 1 block and just 2 fouls. LeBron checked in second and increased the HEAT's chance of winning by an estimated 40% for the last 30 minutes of the game with 22 points on 9 shots and 9 free throws, 4 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 turnovers, 4 steals and just 1 foul.

LeBron and Wade did what they were supposed to do in Game 3 - they Spo-proofed the game. All the talk about Erik Spoelstra's coaching performance is meaningless when LeBron and Wade play the way they did in Game 3.

Least Productive HEAT Players in Game 3
Chris Bosh was the least productive HEAT player in Game 3. He decreased the team's chance of winning by an estimated 8% with just 9 points on 12 shots and 0 free throws, only 4 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 turnover, 0 blocks, 1 steal and five fouls in 23 minutes.

As proven in the last 2 games, the HEAT can beat the Pacers without Bosh being productive if they win the matchup in the backcourt. In Game 3, the HEAT backcourt increased the team's chance of winning by 41% while the Pacers backcourt decreased Indiana's chance of winning by 1%.

Mario Chalmers' performance was below average, but he had his first game with a positive contribution this series by increasing the HEAT's chance of winning by 2%. In Games 1 & 2 he decreased the team's chance of winning by 9% and 6%, respectively. Once again in this series, however, Norris Cole saved the day at point guard. Cole increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 11% with 9 points from 3 #KamikazeLayups and 1 open three-pointer. Of course, Ray Allen helped win the backcourt matchup by increasing the HEAT's chance of winning by 16% in the 4th quarter with 13 points on just 5 shots and 2 free throws.

Most Productive Pacers in Game 3
The Pacers played so poorly in Game 3 that their most productive player was Ian Mahinmi, who played less than 9 minutes but increased the team's chance of winning by 13%. Roy Hibbert was the 2nd most productive Pacer and increased the team's chance of winning by 8% with 16 points on 13 shots with 2 free throws, 2 rebounds, 1 steal and 3 fouls in 36 minutes. The center position is the only consistent advantage the Pacers have in this series.

Least Productive Pacer in Game 3
George Hill was the least productive Pacer in Game 3. He decreased the team's chance of winning by 4.5% with 8 points on 5 shots and 3 free throws, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers, 0 steals and 5 fouls in 21 minutes. Lance Stephenson was right behind Hill in the race to the bottom and decreased the Pacers' chance of winning by 4.4%. Their performance is the reason why the HEAT backcourt dominated the matchup in Game 3.

Game 3 Box Score
The PACERS-GM3 tab in the spreadsheet below lists the estimated wins produced in Game 3.

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